Know if your strategy will survive — or quietly drain your account
This strategy currently looks loss-making and fragile under real execution. Most strategies fail silently — this shows where.
This strategy should not be trusted with real capital yet.
Based on the current audit, the strategy shows a score of 32, a profit factor of 1.12, an expectancy of -4.87, and a max drawdown percentage of 0.41. Use this as a decision layer before deployment, not after losses.
Based on current expectancy, this strategy is expected to lose ≈ $3,131 over repeated execution.
Red flags in this strategy
Issues the AI identified that would hurt you in live trading.
- XAverage win 9.2x smaller than average loss — single losing streak wipes out months of profit
- XWinrate 74% with expectancy -$4.87 means the strategy is a textbook martingale-style losing system
- XMax drawdown 41% exceeds the recovery capacity of a typical $10K account
- XStress test shows strategy collapses under +0.5 pips spread and 1-bar execution delay
- XMonte Carlo: 68% of paths end below starting capital within 500 trades
What actually works
- +Good trade frequency — 643 executions provide statistically meaningful sample
- +Consistent instrument (XAUUSD only) — no multi-symbol noise in results
AI Strategy Doctor
Explains what's wrong and exactly how to fix it.
Classic 'smooth equity, eventual collapse' pattern. High winrate disguises a deeply negative expectancy. The strategy survives normal conditions but breaks under any execution friction.
Exit logic uses a wide stop and tight take-profit. This forces winrate up but caps upside while keeping tail-risk open. Position sizing does not adapt to drawdown.
Replace fixed stop with ATR-based stop, add regime filter (e.g. skip high-spread London/NY transition), reduce position size after 2 consecutive losers, and retest with spread +50%.
Stress test under real execution
What happens when slippage, spread, and delay are added to your backtest.
| Scenario | Net P&L | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Baseline | $2,342 | Marginally profitable |
| Spread +0.5 pips | $-1,120 | Becomes losing |
| Slippage 1 tick | $-2,380 | Deeply losing |
| Execution delay 1 bar | $-4,410 | Deeply losing |
| Combined stress | $-7,820 | Catastrophic |
Monte Carlo outcomes
1,000 alternative orderings of the same trades.
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